Set for chaos

“The United States is heading into its greatest political and constitutional crisis since the Civil War, with a reasonable chance over the next three to four years of incidents of mass violence, a breakdown of federal authority, and the division of the country into warring red and blue enclaves. The warning signs may be obscured by the distractions of politics, the pandemic, the economy and global crises, and by wishful thinking and denial. But about these things there should be no doubt:

First, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president in 2024. The hope and expectation that he would fade in visibility and influence nave been delusional. …

Second, Trump and his Republican allies are actively preparing to ensure his victory with whatever means necessary. …

The stage is thus being set for chaos.

The Opinions Essay / Opinion: Our constitutional crisis is already here, by contributing columnist Robert Kagan. Washington Post, September 26, 2021.

From a 6,000 word piece in Sunday’s Washington Post. I was glad to see this published — a very unusual (the Post’s editors seemed to barely knew where to put it), comprehensive, and forceful “long read” that attempts to make sense of this dangerous moment in America. The sense of doom, of the walls closing in on us from every direction (political, cultural, educational, economic) feels very true to me.

A Trump victory is likely to mean at least the temporary suspension of American democracy as we have known it. We are already in a constitutional crisis. The destruction of democracy might not come until November 2024, but critical steps in that direction are happening now. In a little more than a year, it may become impossible to pass legislation to protect the electoral process in 2024. …

Today’s arguments…will seem quaint in three years if the American political system enters a crisis for which the Constitution offers no remedy. Most Americans — and all but a handful of politicians — have refused to take this possibility seriously enough to try to prevent it.